Making the Case: Google is Deathly Scared of Microsoft

There’s Strength in Numbers
Rather than just focusing on Microsoft and their Surface devices, Google now has to be on their guard against the device makers – any of whom could set the mobile markets on fire.

They must watch out for Microsoft and Dell, but also for Lenovo, Acer and Asus – any of whom can come in at any price point and deliver a crushing blow to Kindle Fire, Google Nexus and other Android-based devices.

Sal Marvasti in SeekingAlpha states;

Windows Phone 8 provides a mix of the benefits of Apple (cohesiveness) and Android (dynamic and competitive). For Windows Phone there are only three major manufacturers, with only a handful of models each. The hardware is tightly controlled, unlike Android, while still being more flexible than Apple.

Even folks like Samsung, with the marketing leading S3 smartphone have no intrinsic loyalty towards Google.  If their sales of Windows Phone 8 smartphones began to climb, guess where their attention would turn?

It could more easily than you think, turn into the Google Nexus vs everyone else (who have jumped on the Microsoft bandwagon).

That is another reason I believe Google is deathly scared of Microsoft.

Mountains of Cash
Next, do you know how much poor old Microsoft has in the bank? Almost $67 billion.  Yep, that would be “billion” with a B.  You gotta fear companies who have $67 billion in the bank, and who last year, made over $16 billion in profit after taxes.

Add to that determined companies like Lenovo, Acer, Dell and the rest, and that strength is multiplied.  Apple is only Apple, there is no ‘ecosystem’ of other Apple-compatible smartphones or tablets.  That threat is easy to manage, easier to beat.

A Better Operating System
There is another very real reason Google is scared of Microsoft in my view of things.  This may be a hard one to hear and is somewhat subjective, but hear me out.

Windows 8 is better than Android.  OK, let me rephrase that controversial statement.  Windows 8 has the potential to be a lot better than Android.

What do I mean by that? Well, do you remember the first few reviews of Windows 8?  Yep, almost everyone griped about the problem with drivers, about the infamous Start Button (or lack therof), the vanishing Task Bar etc. etc.

If I were Microsoft, I’d be ecstatic.  Why? Very few reviewers actually came out and panned Windows 8 as being inferior to either Android or iOS. Those that did were not using a touch-enabled screen.

The latter two are more polished right now – after many iterations, I quite agree.  But Windows 8, the Metro style, and Live Tiles are to my mind, just a superior approach to ‘dead’ icons of Android and iOS.

Even though Windows 8 is still working through those rough edges, at it’s core, it is a different, superior cognitive approach to the UI – and a better one to boot.

Now, better does not always guarantee victory, as we all know.  But Google surely recognizes that Microsoft and their hardware partners have the resources to chip and chip and chip away at them and Apple to ultimately create significant market share for themselves.

Every service pack and point release will make things better for Windows 8.  Every new utility that replaces the Start Button and Task Bar and enables booting straight to the desktop UI will remove all the irritants that annoyed many of the first users of Windows 8.

Windows 8 is already a pleasure to use (love that shortened bootup time also!); in 6-12 months, it will be an irresistible proposition for millions.

This is Not Like the Search Market
The smartphone and tablet market is not search.  If Google thinks it is (which I don’t think is the case), that would be a grievous mistake and one that will cost them.

Google has been able to see off Yahoo, Bing and all comers successfully in search and more successfully with Adsense and Adwords search marketing.  However, they know that with devices, that almost-monopoly cannot be created or defended that easily.

It is an entirely different game.

All they need to do is to see how easily they took market share from Apple to understand that despite the loyalty brought about by ecosystems of services, you can bleed market share just like that.

It does not require a stretch of the imagination to see Microsoft doing to them what they are doing to Apple.

Microsoft Understands the Enterprise
The next reason Google is scared of Microsoft is that, much better than Apple, Microsoft understands business.  Not only that, but their systems still drive the majority of computing in the enterprise while Google does not.

The moment enterprises – who are still forking over cash on Windows 7 licenses by the way – see the potential of Windows 8, especially on newer form factors, Microsoft will have a built-in advantage in regard to integration.

Yes, I know that BYOD trends see all kinds of OSs being used, with iOS and Android leading.  But Microsoft can, and in my estimate, will gain traction over time and the pendulum could conceivably begin to swing in its direction.

The last chaotic, weak quarter of 2012 with the launches of Windows 8 and Microsoft Surface will not be repeated.  Every quarter going forward will see stronger performance from Windows 8-based devices as it gets established.

Google’s Own Actions
Why do you think Google has engaged in juvenile hamstringing of their apps on Windows 8?  First the issue with Exchange Active Sync and access to Gmail, and then blocking Google Maps on Windows Phone 8.

 Google Responds to Outcry, Allows Maps Access on Windows Phone

 It’s simple – Google recognizes the threat much more than the casual observer.  If they didn’t think Microsoft was such a threat, they wouldn’t – as it is alleged – have reportedly asked senior managers to obstruct their apps’ smooth working on the Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 platforms.

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